To date the same fear should have the same effects

Since a few weeks, despite the bleak weather, many media give us to believe that the world economy is unexpectedly rose. The crisis would be finite This is what it is trying to have us believe. And it must be recognized that a number of "Swallows" seem to be the economic "Spring". Some leading us indicators, including predictive capacity is unanimously recognized (such as the ISM and PMI indicators), evidence of an improvement in the morale of the enterprises of this country. Similarly, indicators for emerging countries seem to gradually turn to the green. Would it be the evidence that the internal market in these countries could be capable of constituting a relay of growth in exports Moreover, the banking assets impairments seem to slow, even for a number of us banks to repay the funds advanced by the State, and thus find their freedom their leaders pay... Finally, there is hope that the measures of fiscal stimulus taken in contravention with the dogmas for twenty years (and, in the first place, the stability pact European), will begin to bear fruit.

These four "Swallows" are, however, the "Spring" from the end of the crisis The answer is clearly "no". Because, if a corner of the blue sky is indeed, cloud cover remains not less dominant. And this, on all fronts.

At the microeconomic level, if the large companies, intelligently globalised, arrive momentarily to "pull the pin of the game", the huge cohort of SMEs undergoes head-on the aftermath of a "credit crunch" that bankers deny but that the most serious statistics are beginning to reveal. At the meso level, no serious reform is has been implemented to date, while the crisis erupted since almost two years. Despite the runs traced by the G20 in London, nothing or nearly was. Whether the agencies rating, tax havens and the means available to the banking regulators. American reform remains inadequate. And, at the same time to reveal new "mine fields" seems extremely perilous cross. This is the case, for example, the pension fund in the United States, passed below the "threshold of personal flotation device" (that is, their ability to meet their commitments) or "hedge funds", of which the best connoisseurs predict the disappearance pure and simple one-third of the workforce. Or the US credit cards. Or the LBO in Europe. Or CDS (credit default swaps", products of securitization market more than world GDP...) around the world.

The macroeconomic level, do much better. Even if the dollar survives, with the Chinese, the complete absence of budgetary cooperation across the planet still gives a bonus "stowaways" (such as the Germany), who benefit from the efforts of others, to do this, pay their contribution to the collective efforts.

Given these multiple "swords of Damocles" the question is this: should preach the false (the end of the crisis) to know the true (the return of confidence) Our belief is the following. The trust does not artificially re-create. The Coué method never permanently worked in economics. It is better not to obscure the face and accept the harsh reality. The crisis is not over and reforms to get out of it are more than ever, necessary. It took the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers that the policies of all countries take the measure of the magnitude of the crisis and agreed to hold a g-20, under the impetus of Nicolas Sarkozy, then President of the European Union. To date, the same fear should have the same effects. I.e. implementing effective reforms on which most experts have, today, agreed. Otherwise it is feared that the rare "Swallows" economic of this spring will be a particularly cruel fall...